New study shows cloud loss contributing to record-breaking temperatures

Earth’s cloud cover is rapidly shrinking and contributing to record-breaking temperatures, according to new research involving the Monash-led Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather.

The research, led by the United States’ National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and published in Geophysical Research Letters, analysed satellite observations to find between 1.5 and 3 per cent of the world’s storm cloud zones have been contracting each decade in the past 24 years.

The trend has been linked to changing wind patterns, the expansion of the tropics and storm systems shifting toward the North and South poles, which are all well-documented responses to climate change.

With less clouds reflecting sunlight back into space to keep the planet cool, the warming effect of greenhouse gas emissions is being amplified and driving up global temperatures.

Co-author and Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather Christian Jakob, also a Professor at Monash School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, said reduction in cloud cover is now understood to be the largest contributor to Earth’s increased absorption of solar radiation.

“We’ve long known that changes in atmospheric circulation are affecting clouds,” Professor Jakob said.

“For the first time, we now have research showing those shifts are already driving major changes in how much energy the Earth absorbs.

“It’s an important piece in the puzzle of understanding the extraordinary recent warming we observed, and a wake-up call for urgent climate action.”

Being able to more accurately predict where clouds form and how much sunlight they reflect will be critical to anticipating the speed and scale of future warming.

Professor Jakob said it is critical world-leading climate science research is adequately supported across international borders.

“If you want to understand the climate crisis, and prepare for its impacts, you need this kind of data and this kind of analysis,” he said.

“It is important for all of us to realise that our climate does not care what people wish it to be, it only responds to our actions.

“Eliminating science that informs those actions is a perilous strategy.”

The Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather brings together Australia’s leading climate and weather experts to investigate the contemporary changes in our weather and climate systems, and work with industry and government to find solutions.

Professor Jakob said future climate resilience requires a shift in thinking from climate change to weather change.

“Our mission is to understand how Australia and the world’s weather is being reshaped by a warming climate,” Professor Jakob said.

“It’s not just long-term averages that matter, but how the day-to-day and season-to-season conditions we all rely on are changing.

“Our goal is to provide the knowledge and tools needed to help governments, businesses and communities prepare for what lies ahead.”

Read the research paper: doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114882