Totally Cooked: Episode 5 – How is climate change impacting Antarctica?

Antarctica is one of the fastest-changing places on Earth. In this chilly episode of Totally Cooked, hosts Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a Professor of Climate Science at the Australian National University, and Iain Strachan, a former journalist turned science communicator, are joined by Professor Nerilie Abram to explore how global warming is transforming the icy continent.

We unpack what makes Antarctica unique, why its melting glaciers and ice shelves matter for sea level rise, and how changes in the Southern Ocean and atmosphere are reshaping weather patterns, including in Australia. We also discuss krill, penguins, tipping points and why scientists say “what happens in Antarctica doesn’t stay in Antarctica.”

Whether you’re curious about Antarctic science, concerned about climate impacts, or just want to understand how our coldest continent is connected to your daily weather, this episode will leave you better informed and ready to tackle the climate crisis.

Show Notes

In this episode, we look at:

• Why Antarctica is the coldest, highest, driest, and windiest continent on Earth
• What ancient ice cores reveal about climate history, and Australia’s past megadroughts
• How melting Antarctic ice is slowing deep ocean circulation
• The catastrophic decline in sea ice, krill, and emperor penguins
• Why West Antarctica may be headed for irreversible melt
• The connection between Antarctica and Australia’s weather
• What the IPCC says (and will likely say next) about climate change in the south
• Geoengineering vs emissions cuts – what can actually help?
• How climate surprises in Antarctica could reshape the world

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Timestamps

00:00 – Cold Open + Introduction

• Sarah and Ian welcome listeners from the ANU Wood Library
• They tease their first ever guest and introduce Prof Nerilie Abram

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00:54 – Meet Nerilie Abram

• Climate scientist, IPCC author, Fellow of the Academy of Science
• Co-hosts marvel at her Antarctic credentials

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01:50 – The Wood Library & a Bit About Timber

• Room full of wood samples, not books
• A detour into forestry history at ANU

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03:17 – What Is Antarctica?

• Coldest, highest, windiest, driest continent
• Ice sheets up to 4km thick make it the highest continent

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04:43 – Lakes Beneath the Ice

• Antarctica has subglacial lakes and rivers
• First evidence came from the 3.6 km deep Vostok core

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05:13 – Ancient Ice and the Race for Oldest Core

• Some ice cores go back 800,000 years
• Recent efforts have reached 1.2 million years, with hopes for 1.5M

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06:11 – Antarctica: The Driest Continent

• Some inland areas receive just centimetres of snow each year
• Coastal zones see up to 2 metres annually

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07:10 – Antarctica’s Freshwater and Sea Level Impact

• Melting all Antarctic ice would raise sea levels ~57m
• That’s unlikely soon—but parts are vulnerable

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08:08 – What It Would Take to Melt It All

• 10°C of sustained global warming for millennia
• Still, irreversible changes are already underway

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08:37 – Life on the Ice: Penguins and Moss

• Sparse biodiversity, concentrated in coastal ice-free zones
• Emperor penguins and moss are key players

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09:30 – Coldest and Hottest Temperatures on Record

• Vostok’s -89.2°C in 1983 vs. Esperanza’s 18.3°C in 2020

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10:57 – Human Exploration and Colonisation

• First seen by Russians (1820), first landing by Norwegians (1895)
• Scott vs Amundsen vs Shackleton vs… tractors

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14:56 – Antarctica’s Human Presence Today

• No permanent population
• Casey Station hosts ~100 in summer, ~30 in winter

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15:53 – Nerilie’s First Antarctic Expedition

• British-led ice core project on James Ross Island
• Camping in the cold, flying in on Navy ships and Twin Otters

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17:10 – Why Drill Ice Cores?

• They capture atmospheric history and natural variability
• Essential for understanding past and future climate shifts

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18:50 – Field Life on the Ice

• Camping in -20°C, occasional T-shirt weather
• Schedules adjusted when it’s too warm to drill

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20:56 – Isolation and Stress in Remote Stations

• Reflections on recent threats at a South African station
• How extreme environments can strain relationships

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22:52 – Antarctica’s Unexpected Climate Response

• For years, the continent defied global warming trends
• Now, rapid sea ice decline and temperature rise are evident

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24:15 – How Much Has Antarctica Warmed?

• Peninsula: >1°C warming; rest of continent now showing clear signal
• Complex interplay of natural variability and human influence

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25:17 – Ozone, Winds, and Sea Ice Trends

• Ozone hole strengthened westerlies, temporarily increasing sea ice
• Now, warming oceans are reversing the trend

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26:40 – 2023: Extreme Sea Ice Loss

• Size of missing winter sea ice = Western Australia
• A >6 standard deviation event — unheard of

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28:29 – Brine Rejection & Ocean Circulation

• Sea ice formation creates cold, salty, heavy water
• Drives deep ocean currents around the globe

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30:52 – Antarctic Circulation Is Slowing

• New data show 30–40% decline in bottom water formation
• It’s happening faster than in the North Atlantic

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32:41 – Why This Matters for Global Climate

• Circulation shifts affect carbon storage and rainfall patterns
• Potential consequences for Australia’s winter rain

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34:03 – Sea Ice, Krill, and Penguins

• Krill numbers down 80% since the 1970s
• Loss of sea ice means breeding failure for emperor penguins

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38:31 – Emperor Penguins in Crisis

• Colonies losing chicks before fledging
• Satellite data show widespread reproductive failure

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41:08 – What the Future Holds for Antarctica

• Warming oceans, melting ice, disrupted circulation
• Many of these changes feed back into global warming

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43:00 – Could Circulation Collapse Entirely?

• It’s possible, but timing is uncertain
• A “climate surprise”: high impact, unknown probability

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44:25 – IPCC and Scientific Certainty

• Climate change is “unequivocally” caused by humans
• Antarctica’s role will feature more prominently in future reports

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47:46 – West Antarctica: On the Brink?

• Ice resting below sea level makes it unstable
• Once melting begins, it can become unstoppable

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50:43 – What to Expect in the Next IPCC Report

• More on tipping points, climate stabilization, and net zero futures

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53:03 – Antarctica and Global Tipping Points

• A shift in focus from North Atlantic to Southern Hemisphere risks

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54:49 – Antarctica’s Connection to Australia

• Weather systems link the two regions
• Ice cores help reconstruct drought history, including a 39-year megadrought

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57:05 – How Antarctic Ice Cores Track Australian Climate

• Sea salt, snowfall, and isotopes all hold clues
• Connections via Southern Annular Mode and zonal wave three

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59:24 – Transporting Ice Cores Home

• Careful cutting, padded helicopters, and frozen logistics
• A single core is scientifically priceless

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01:04:47 – So, What Should We Do?

• Cut emissions fast. No geoengineering gimmicks
• Stabilising climate is the only real fix

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01:07:39 – Preparing for the Climate Surprises Ahead

• We need to adapt for sea level rise and megadroughts now
• War game the unimaginable — before it’s reality

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01:10:47 – Won’t Someone Please Think of the Penguins?

• Final reflections on emperor penguins and Nerilie’s visit
• Teaser: Next episode, it’s El Niño

Episode References & Further Reading

Antarctic Environment & Climate Records
CIA World Factbook. (2022). Antarctica – Geography. Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved from: https://web.archive.org/web/20220509192134/https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/antarctica/

Turner, J., Comiso, J. C., Marshall, G. J., et al. (2009). Record low surface air temperature at Vostok Station, Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114(D24). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012104

UK Antarctic Heritage Trust. (n.d.). The climate today. Discovering Antarctica. Retrieved from: https://discoveringantarctica.org.uk/oceans-atmosphere-landscape/a-changing-climate/the-climate-today/

UK Antarctic Heritage Trust. (n.d.). Impacts of climate change. Discovering Antarctica. Retrieved from: https://discoveringantarctica.org.uk/climate-change/impacts-of-climate-change/

IPCC & Southern Ocean Change
IPCC. (2021). Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In AR6 Working Group I Report. Retrieved from: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter09.pdf

Ozone Depletion & Sea Ice
Solomon, S. (2009). The mystery of the Antarctic ozone hole. Nature, 460, 792–794. https://www.nature.com/articles/460792a
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (2018). Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2018. Retrieved from: https://ozone.unep.org/sites/default/files/2019-05/SAP-2018-Assessment-report.pdf

Penguins, Krill & Marine Life
UK Antarctic Heritage Trust. (n.d.). Impacts of climate change. Discovering Antarctica. https://discoveringantarctica.org.uk/climate-change/impacts-of-climate-change/

Southern Ocean Circulation & Climate Tipping Points
Lenton, T. M., et al. (2023). The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter. https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping-points-reassessment-explainer/

Rintoul, S. R., et al. (2021). Warm ocean water melting the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science, 372(6548), 1331–1335. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950
Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). (2023). Scientists warn of dramatic slowdown in Southern Ocean circulation. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-30/dramatic-south-ocean-circulation-changes-study/102154690

Sea Level Rise & Ice Sheet Stability
Kopp, R. E., et al. (2021). Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections. Nature Climate Change, 11, 819–828. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x
PubMed Central. (2021). Future Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8087405/
AWI EPIC. (2022). Ice sheet collapse scenarios. https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/58369/1/science.ade0664%281%29.pdf

Australia-Antarctica Climate Links
Australian Research Council SRI for Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF). (2024). Reasons to Care: Down Down Under [Brochure]. Retrieved from: https://arcsaef.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SAEF_Reasons-to-Care_Down-Down-Under-Brochure.pdf

Monitoring & Climate Modelling Needs
British Antarctic Survey. (n.d.). First comprehensive review of Antarctica’s climate: Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment. Retrieved from: https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/first-comprehensive-review-of-the-state-of-antarcticas-climate-antarctic-climate-change-and-the-environment/

Why listen to Totally Cooked?

Because it’s time to feel empowered, not overwhelmed. Totally Cooked is a science-backed, straight-talking podcast about weather, climate change, and what it all means for life on Earth – especially here in Australia.

Hosted by climate scientist Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and science communicator Iain Strachan, Totally Cooked breaks down how human activity is changing the Earth’s systems—from our skies to our seas—and what we can do about it.

From greenhouse gases to fire weather, supercomputers to Antarctic ice cores, this is climate science without the jargon, and where no subject is too complex or controversial.

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• Cut through the noise with clear, honest science.
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