Masterclass in 21st Century Weather: Untangling climate risk assessments
When reviewing climate risk assessments, can you confidently interpret the information? Are you aware of the assumptions used?
Whether you are responsible for decisions made or are a team member providing input to inform decision-making, our 2026 Masterclass will build your skills: learn to critically evaluate climate information and risk assessments, challenge assumptions, and confidently distinguish fact from belief to improve your organisation’s climate resilience.
21st Century Weather’s 2026 Masterclass will take place at Adelaide Zoo at the Plane Tree Centre, on Thursday 6 August from 9:30am, for a 10am start till 4pm.
Attendance of the event is free of charge, but spaces are limited. Register here.
Masterclass Agenda
10:00 – Lecture | Overview of weather change in the 21st Century
Professor Christian Jakob, Director and Chief Investigator of 21st Century Weather, will provide an overview of weather changes in the 21st century, highlighting the role of climate variability, associated risks and opportunities, the scale of decision-making across different time horizons, and the relevance of climate risk assessments.
This introduction will equip participants with foundational concepts and questions to begin critically interpreting climate information and recognising assumptions in climate risk assessments.
10:20 – Lecture | Weather and climate models 101
Professor Christian Jakob will introduce the basics of weather and climate models, explaining how they operate, the information they provide, the differences in variables, scales and data quality, and highlight the uncertainty involved across models.
This session aims to build awareness of the complexities and limitations of interpreting model outputs, helping participants start to distinguish facts from beliefs and identify key assumptions, without expecting mastery of modeling techniques.
11:00 – Lecture | The value and limits of models and downscaling
Professor Julie Arblaster will explore the value and limitations of climate models and downscaling. She will address the proliferation of models, the purpose of bias correction, skill and resolution, and the need to critically assess the benefits and risks of more granular data.
This discussion will help participants become more comfortable questioning assumptions and considering the reliability and consistency of information, with the understanding that expertise in evaluating all models is not expected.
11:30 – Morning tea
12:00 – Case study | Occurrence of compound extreme events in models and in future scenarios
Early Career Researcher and PhD candidate, Nayan Talmale, will examine how models represent compound extreme events and future climate scenarios, using examples such as hot and dry events in South Australia, and will discuss the importance of mitigation choices and the challenges of modelling complex situations.
The case study is designed to offer practical examples that will help participants begin to assess climate-related risks and adaptation options, recognising that real-world decision-making remains complex and nuanced.
12:30 – Lecture | High-level introduction to machine learning for weather and climate
Senior Research Fellow, Dr Sanaa Hobeichi, will offer a high-level introduction to machine learning and AI for weather and climate, using examples from downscaling and extreme weather, and the responsible use of these advanced tools to better characterise uncertainty.
Participants will gain perspectives on how new technologies can support critical evaluation of climate risk assessments.
13:00 – Lunch
14:00 – Lecture | Understanding and using climate model information
Professor Julie Arblaster will expand on how we understand and apply climate model information, evaluating the strengths and new developments of CMIP models by highlighting key variables and extreme weather events. The session will help participants interpret climate model data in the context of their own objectives, risks, and benefits, supporting informed adaptation decisions.
14:30 – Activity | Unpacking climate risk assessments
Associate Professor Ailie Gallant, 21st Century Weather Deputy Director (Government & Industry Partnerships) and Chief Investigator, and Dr Rachael Isphording, Research Fellow, will facilitate a hands-on activity. They will unpack climate risk assessments by exploring scenario selection, the importance of baselines, the value of interrogating data, and the necessity of understanding uncertainty and climate variability for robust decision-making. The activity is designed to build confidence in reviewing climate information for adaptation actions and reports, with the understanding that ongoing learning and collaboration are essential for developing deeper expertise.
16:00 – Afternoon tea & Networking
Why should you attend?
We are in a fairly impossible situation.
Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is heating up our climate, and CO2 stays in the atmosphere for a really long time. Like compound interest, CO2 has a cumulative effect year on year. More carbon in the atmosphere keeps things extra toasty, which is bad news for heatwaves. In Australia, the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves will continue to increase over the next 1000 years, even if we reach net zero. (Watch 21st Century Weather’s Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick expand on this.)
And even if we reach net zero – and we must get there fast – we need to adapt. But how can we choose the best adaptation action?
Government, utilities and businesses must make the best decisions possible, based on the imperfect information they have at the time. This requires recognising the limits of what we know about the future of a changing climate.
To decide on the best adaptation option, you need choices. This requires gathering as much relevant information, data and perspectives as possible, because incomplete information can lead to flawed decisions.
Committing to a course of action also involves assessing options against your own objectives, risks and benefits. It goes beyond regulatory implications and affects business and service continuity and long-term resilience.
Climate risk assessments and resulting adaptation actions must be reviewed continuously to assess whether the problem has changed, the decision delivered as intended, and to pivot if needed.