Centre Project: Climate Variability & Weather Systems

Australia’s weather is strongly affected by large-scale modes of climate variability such as:

• the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO);
• the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD);
• and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). 

For example, ENSO alters when and where rain tends to fall over Australia, and changes the frequency of thunderstorms.

This project will seek to identify the way large-scale modes of climate variability are linked to weather systems and regimes. 

Knowledge Gaps

We have some understanding of how these modes make a large-scale impact on our weather and climate. But we lack detailed knowledge of their impact on local weather systems. For example, eastern Australia experiences generally wetter winter and spring conditions under La Nina, but what weather systems actually bring this rain? 

Our researchers will gain more information about the two-way relationship between climate variability and weather systems. To do so, they will use the ultra high-resolution climate modelling tools being developed at 21st Century Weather.

In the process, those same climate models will gain more accuracy and reliability. Just one challenge among many is to create models that can represent the combination of tropical cyclones in northern Australia and frontal systems in southern Australia, which have led to some of our most damaging weather impacts. 

Benefits

The results will help us understand how weather regimes and climate variability interact, in the real world and in our climate simulations. In turn, this will help us to predict changes to our weather resources (like sunlight, wind and water) in a warming world. Our work provides a stepping-stone between modes of variability, and the actual weather that they cause.

We can also challenge the view that climate variability (like ENSO) is a one-way driver of local weather. For example, we know that the Indian Ocean Dipole influences droughts. But do high-pressure systems over Australia lead to deep water in the ocean around Indonesia reaching the surface, thereby reinforcing the IOD?

Goals & Objectives

• Identify the mechanisms linking modes of climate variability to weather regimes.
• Understand the two-way feedbacks between weather regimes and climate variability.
• Assess and interpret the relationships between climate variability and weather regimes in climate models.