Beyond net zero: Preparing for a future of locked-in climate change

Governments and businesses around the world are working toward net zero carbon emissions, where the amount of greenhouse gases we release into the atmosphere is balanced out by what we remove. It’s a vital step to stop further global warming, but new research warns that reaching net zero won’t mark a swift end to climate change.

While global average temperatures may stop rising after net zero, other parts of the climate system will keep changing. Oceans will continue to warm, sea levels will keep rising, and Antarctic sea ice is likely to keep shrinking. These changes will happen slowly, but they’re locked in, and some will play out over centuries.

So why does this matter? Because many of our current climate decisions and risk assessments focus mainly on global temperatures. The message is often simplified: ‘Hit net zero, and we’ll stabilise the climate.’ That’s only partly true. If we ignore the other changes, we risk being unprepared for the impacts that continue – even in a world where we’ve cut emissions.

Some parts of the world, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, may keep warming even after global temperatures stabilise. That means weather extremes like heatwaves could still become more common in places like Australia, even under net zero. Key climate patterns, like El Niño and the Atlantic Ocean currents, may also shift in unpredictable ways.

A group of researchers, featuring Associate Professor Andrew King and Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of 21st Century Weather, have called for us to rethink how we talk about net zero. 

Writing in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment, they point out that scientists, governments and the public need to understand that climate change doesn’t stop the moment emissions do. To avoid being caught off guard, we need to plan for continued change – especially in vulnerable regions – and develop smart adaptation strategies alongside emissions cuts.

In short, reaching net zero is essential, but it’s not the end of the story. Clearer communication, better planning, and a broader understanding of ongoing climate risks will be crucial as we shape our future.

This summary article was written using a combination of human and artificial intelligence. To read the research in full, go to: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02472-1